Interpretazione e previsione nelle relazioni internazionali. Le metodologie predittive al servizio della politica estera

Interpretation and forecasting in international relations. Predictive methodologies at the service of foreign policy

Abstract

While humankind has always dreamt of knowing the future, the attempt to provide a scientific base to this aspiration is much more recent. Despite the work done by IR theorists, the ambition to make use of modern epistemology to foresee future events in international politics remains. This paper tries to illustrate the intellectual efforts to explain and predict international events, mentioning recent examples of practical attempts conducted by national agencies and international organizations. The final goal is to discuss what type of approach to foresight and prediction would be best suited for such a country as Italy, a middle-sized power not in a position, by itself, to decisively influence major international developments, but well connected to the international system, and with huge stakes in its stability.